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Post by ridge on Feb 17, 2015 15:10:20 GMT -5
THIS IS A POST THAT I MADE IN ANOTHER FORUM IN REPLY TO ALL OF THE NUMBERS BEING THROWN AROUND TO SUPPORT MAPRs. I BELIEVE IT IS AN ILLUSION. I WRITE WHY I BELIEVE THIS IS SO.
If you want to change my mind (if that is possible ) or show me real facts, show me actual numbers not percentages. It is your contention that percentages show trends but it is mine that percentages can mean anything or nothing. We have been there before, I know.
10% of 100,000 is one thing but 10% of 100 is quite another. I would like to see prior MAPR regulation actual number totals and the MAPR actual number totals. Included in that somewhere I would like to see the total harvest numbers along with the age breakdown. That would have more meaning especially if there was a description of how the actual numbers were arrived at during the various periods of time. Rarely is that detail provided because it would be more difficult to hide variances if that was what one was trying to do. The numbers game is being argued in deer management in more than one state because hunters do not like game management done under hidden numbers and false impressions.
Total deer numbers are going down in many states for a variety of reasons. That is no secret. Hunters want to know why they should pay more for a lower and in some cases, a much lower probability of success when that success is defined in taking, killing a deer. I am not saying that this may be the best definition of success but I believe it is an important one to many hunters. Headlines seem to reflect that idea.
Quantification by actual numbers will provide a more realistic picture especially when the methods of data collection are specifically known. Data collection has not been consistent for several reasons, whether valid or not, and that is an important piece of the puzzle when trying formulate management plans based on numbers. I want to know how the puppet master is moving the strings and I want to know which strings he is moving and for which puppet. Illusions, or even the possibility of such a thing, does nothing for me.
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Post by daappleknocker on Feb 18, 2015 10:28:21 GMT -5
Ridge, you are asking way too many questions and the MDNR or MAR’s advocates cannot possibly answer them. For instance, total harvest numbers are configured by the results of the annual deer harvest survey sent out to over 50,000 hunters each year. These numbers are as close as you can get to actual harvest without spending excessive amounts of money. The problem with these ADHS numbers is that they do not or cannot verify age of the harvested animals. To determine age they use check station data with trained, I hope, biologist. The problem has been pointed out by Jim Sweeney that the 045 data has been compromised thus corrupted by Leelanau Whitetails in their attempt to show MAR’s are working in that area. How did they do this? By acquiring data from taxidermist and LW-QDMA members. Was this manipulation done to skew the numbers? To be politically correct, Jim Sweeney says NO. But on my belief that the TRUTH is always politically correct, I say absolutely. The real question is, why would the MDNR-WD allow this contamination and corruption? For the same reason they allowed the corruption of the NW-12 survey language, to promote an unjust agenda for “social science”. There was absolutely NO dialogue on the questionable, manipulated and corrupt language of that survey language or process. Those who tried to sound the alarm were discredited and silenced on social media.
CORRUPT; make inferior by alterations, to contaminate by modifications.
Many MAR’s advocates are self-appointed intellectuals, taking liberties with the truth to push and advance their very selfish and biological unsound agendas. Many pro MAR’s advocates have touted their advanced education, and use their mastery of the English language to formulate fictitious arguments to further their flawed, selfish agendas which if left unchecked will come crashing down on the heads of ALL Michigan deer hunters. This has already become a reality.
These same self-appointed intellectuals have hijacked the Michigan Sportsmen forum with complete cooperation from a few moderators who help them spew their hyperbolized agenda. They are, Steve, Bio, fairfax1, farmlegend, bucksnbows, chasineyes, liverandonions, luv2hunteup, midalake, QDMAMAN, Robert Holmes, and Empire. Intelligence is NO preventer of ignorance.
I do not see eye to eye with any of those listed above as my ethics and character prohibit it. I also do not see eye to eye with any other special or selfish interest groups such as MUCC, QDMA (Michigan Chapters only), or the group CFPWM because it is hard to get that low to see eye to eye with them. When it comes to these people and groups and the MDNR-WD, it is hard to distinguish who is pimping who.
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 18, 2015 11:50:41 GMT -5
I think we are seeing a little more of the puzzle now that Jim Sweeny took the time to put together graphs for the DMUs surrounding the NWLP MARs DMUs that show the same trend as the MARs DMUs on the % of the age of bucks harvested (using the check station data) . Only time will tell , but I am thinking this is only the tip of the iceberg of data that is going to show how devastating last winter was for our deer herd . To explain , winter severity can drastically change the make up of the deer herd and I think that is what these current numbers are showing us . Once the other data comes in over the next couple of years the story will be told. Unfortunately that is always too late for the DNR to respond in a timely manner(if they are even going to)
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Post by Dale Malusi on Feb 18, 2015 11:57:56 GMT -5
As I remember, one of the first things I told Dr Bio when he started throwing his charts and graphs at me was don't bother. I guess if I want to be honest I told him, "Your figures mean nothing to me, absolutely nothing." Spin, pure spin. He only uses the data that will back him up, he is a master of omission. When he's exposed he spins or hides and doesn't reply.
Daappleknocker, Triplelunger is prochoice by the way.
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 18, 2015 12:26:09 GMT -5
As I remember, one of the first things I told Dr Bio when he started throwing his charts and graphs at me was don't bother. I guess if I want to be honest I told him, "Your figures mean nothing to me, absolutely nothing." Spin, pure spin. He only uses the data that will back him up , he is a master of omission. When he's exposed he spins or hides and doesn't reply.
Daappleknocker, Triplelunger is prochoice by the way. Lying by omission
Also known as a continuing misrepresentation, a lie by omission occurs when an important fact is left out in order to foster a misconception. I would also like to add the words conformation bias Confirmation bias is a filter through which you see a reality that matches your expectations. It causes you to think selectively, but the real trouble begins when confirmation bias distorts your active pursuit of facts.
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Post by daappleknocker on Feb 18, 2015 12:42:28 GMT -5
Oops, can somebody take his name out of my post. Sorry Triplelunger.
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Post by QDM MARS on Feb 18, 2015 13:21:43 GMT -5
Oops, can somebody take his name out of my post. Sorry Triplelunger. I see you got it figured out Daappleknocker
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Post by Dale Malusi on Feb 18, 2015 14:28:26 GMT -5
I see Dr Jim's tactics as being the same as the one's being played on infomercials all over the air waves.
SIX MILLION SHIPPED!!!
Okay how many were purchased out of those 6 million?
Okay how many were returned or attempted to be returned?
And how many were just thrown out in disgust?
THE MAJORITY OF DEER HUNTERS!!!
Okay the majority of deer hunters that belong to what?
Okay was there a vote?
Okay what is a Stratified form of Random Sampling?
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 18, 2015 16:10:31 GMT -5
You'll just love Vince's nuts (@ point 00:50 )
Now how much would pay ......don't answer yet , just look at what you get!
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Post by ridge on Feb 18, 2015 23:07:29 GMT -5
HAVE I GOT A DEAL FOR YOU! IF YOU ORDER NOW, YOU GET NOT ONE BUT TWO FOR THE PRICE OF ONE PLUS . . . What they don't tell the consumer is that the videos were rigged, production costs are probably under 25 cents, and their life expectancy is until they have another deal that can't be passed up. All of this is done just to get the money out of your pocket!
With the same type of misleading numbers, the MAPR people get their properties built up on your dime, they get more power by using your name, they get to drive more people out of hunting so that there are more trophies for them. Most likely there are more benefits on their private agendas as these are only the obvious ones. What you don't see or hear can hurt you the most.
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Post by Dale Malusi on Feb 19, 2015 8:51:01 GMT -5
Then how about the hidden costs.
It's only $19.95 plus shipping and handling. Act now and get one free, just pay additional shipping and handling!! Have your credit card numbers handy!!
19.95 s+h 99.95 =$119.90
But we don't care about the hidden costs, we got two slapchops for $19.95.
P.S. Here's a quote from today that sounds profound but is typical biospeak. "Virtually all whitetail research scientists agree that a well-balanced herd has a substantial number of adult males."
It also has a substantial number of every age class deer, male or female. Or are we talking about their emotional stability?
well-bal·anced (wĕl′băl′ənst) adj. 1. Evenly balanced, proportioned, or regulated: a well-balanced diet; a well-balanced curriculum. 2. Mentally or emotionally stable; well-adjusted: raising a well-balanced child. 3. Engaging in varied activities or having varied interests: a well-balanced student. American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fifth Edition. Copyright © 2011 by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. Published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company. All rights reserved.
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 19, 2015 20:10:58 GMT -5
And the great unveil
It is now becoming MUCH clearer!
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Post by ridge on Feb 20, 2015 0:02:25 GMT -5
While this post by METTLEFISH does not use numbers, it speaks quite adequately to some graphs and displays made by bioactive concerning the need for old (er) bucks in the deer herd [as shown in Texas and other out of state studies by their "experts"].
So. what your saying is that perhaps Mother NAture knows best, Bucks/Deer are not Monogomous, and so, it may not be necessary for the environment to produce many large old Bucks because one old Buck can fertilize many Does. And the purpose of having Fawns is multi faceted, providing food for other creatrures, and perpetuating the herd. And, if that's the situation, as it may very well be when looking at Buck Doe ratios historically, you people are attempting to change the natural ratios, and potentailly harming the herd by doing so.
And again, I am going on known Science, stuff the Icthyologist propose as regulations because of it's beneficial to the fishes. Not what a group of Anglers or hunters cry to the State to have done. I am against 'fly only" waters. I am against any further APR's. I am beginning to realize I not need to waste my time voicing opinion against them. They don't work, the State has little if not no interest in them, as selling fewer licenses is not conducive to producing large amounts of money. Tasty 1.5 year olds work oh so well in selling those licenses that produce the funds to manage a herd that produces interest in general, not interest in special interests...
The balanced herds that the mapr people talk about are not really balanced. These herds typically have far lower doe numbers and are top heavy with bucks. In areas with heavy winter losses or where disease takes a heavy toll, this means that the herd is far less resilient to change. Herd numbers can plummet drastically in a very short period of time. Percentages are used instead of real numbers because percentages can produce illusional dramatic results. While these percentages can show double digit change (in percentages), in real numbers they can be less than a hand full in difference. These percentages are used to give hunters the false impression that there are more deer to hunt because there are more older bucks in the herd. More can be very very few bucks and the does can be reduced to next to nothing in number. That is the recipe for a disaster waiting to happen in the deer hunting world. That is the rest of the story that the hunter will never hear from the mapr world of special interests.
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 20, 2015 8:18:18 GMT -5
I think we are seeing the results from all this QDM think with all the press from around the country on how the deer numbers have plummeted .
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 20, 2015 9:02:47 GMT -5
And the great unveil
It is now becoming MUCH clearer! And then back to the old "bait and switch" when you think they are no longer paying attention!
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Post by daappleknocker on Feb 20, 2015 12:13:21 GMT -5
Again Bio or Tornado Jim as he likes to be called is showing his arrogance and proving that, “education is no preventer of ignorance.”
Bio quote, “I don’t support APR’s, (he does not support APR’s, he supports Mandatory APR’s, BIG difference) for any other reason except they get us to a more balanced deer herd.” First, short of calling him a , he is totally being deceptive. He is telling you what you want to hear so that he can give you what you got coming. Secondly, without MAR’s, the doe to buck ratio is as balanced as BIOLOGICALLY desired for a hunted resource, every year, BEFORE THE HUNTING SEASONS BEGIN.
Bio then says quote, “I have said for a long time (like that makes it Gospel) that I wish that you, SMART, Concerned Citizens and others would be FOR something instead of AGAINST something.” Again Bio spouts hyperbole and acts arrogant.
I can’t speak for the others mentioned but Michigan S.M.A.R.T. Hunters are FOR more than Bio will be honest enough to admit, and he knows it. Here are a few things that MSH are FOR;
• Antler Point Restrictions on a voluntary, self-imposed manner • An education program to promote the benefits of APR’s • An advertising program help educate Michigan hunters on APR’s • Biologically sound science determining wildlife management in Michigan, NOT “social science” • Hunters choice in deer harvesting, when NOT detrimental to the resource • Traditional hunting as practiced for decades • Bringing honesty and integrity BACK into our wildlife management • Controlling doe harvest in DMU’s where populations are so depressed it impacts hunter participation and satisfaction levels
Those are just some of the things that Michigan S.M.A.R.T. Hunters are FOR. And guess what, the MAR’s advocates are AGAINST all of these things. Now, who are the ANTI’s?
Can you add to this list?
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Post by ridge on Feb 20, 2015 20:34:00 GMT -5
- the opportunity to hunt whitetail deer for all hunters whether female, male, young, in-between, old, disabled, public use, private property, traditional archery, compound archery, crossbows, muzzleloaders, and all types of firearm users. Michigan has one of the largest deer herds in the country on more state land than most states have. MSH does not want to restrict any hunter more than is done with the standard combo license. We want to enable hunters to legally hunt as they choose.
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