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Post by hartman756 on Feb 14, 2014 18:28:40 GMT -5
www.michigan.gov/documents/dnr/Weekly_WSI_Reporting_447522_7.pdf
Just a quick tabulation of the numbers ( hard to tell the exact numbers as it is calculated down to .25 so some guesstimation on my part)
UP = 92 NLP = 63 SLP = 59
. Moderate to heavy deer losses occurred during winters in which the season's severity index exceeded a value of 100 among the various stations across the peninsula.
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 14, 2014 18:34:28 GMT -5
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 14, 2014 18:43:33 GMT -5
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Post by ridge on Feb 14, 2014 23:54:05 GMT -5
Thanks for posting. I have been saying those things for some time this winter and folks have been questioning my sanity. From a lack of available nutrition to the inability of deer to outrun predators, a winter like this one spells greater losses for the deer herd. I noticed that some of the LP DMI crowd are stating that they are providing supplemental feed despite the practice being illegal down there. Yet they claim that winter kill is a product of our imagination. Seems to me that there is something very hypocritical about that.
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 15, 2014 1:12:50 GMT -5
What is left of the deer herd will be devastated in many areas. In winters like this you are going to loose the YOY ( that means the yearling bucks for next fall) and this springs fawns ( button bucks for this fall) . And even if any of those yearlings that where made illegal in the NWL manage to make it through this winter (deer that could have been harvested and made some hunter happy and are now competing for the limited food available) there will be few bucks to replace them in the coming years. You can't stockpile bucks like the QDMers think  and it is times like these that it is even more important to have the does rather than the bucks alive ,and able to reproduce because reproduction will be so limited........................
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Post by ridge on Feb 15, 2014 1:20:48 GMT -5
Exactly so, my friend. Your words are gospel: "Book, chapter, and verse," in the words of the great JW.
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 15, 2014 16:08:40 GMT -5
Here is a side by side comparison of the WSI for 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons for the UP 
 
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 15, 2014 16:12:49 GMT -5
And for the NLP
 
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 15, 2014 16:16:24 GMT -5
And for the SLP
 
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Post by ridge on Feb 15, 2014 19:25:15 GMT -5
Thanks for the graphs. They clearly show a bleak picture for whitetail survival.
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 15, 2014 19:39:24 GMT -5
This winter is already being compared to the 95-96 winter for severity in some areas (depending on when it breaks). |
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 15, 2014 19:59:12 GMT -5
Here is a little something I found for the massive losses during the winter of 95
Click on each pic to read them  
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Post by yesdeer on Feb 16, 2014 11:16:14 GMT -5
It is definitely a bleak outlook for the next few years of hunting and will be made worse for others if the LimpD's get their way. I found this picture and I thought about the food plot scenario, wonder if this is what they see in their mind (or the picture they want you to see in your mind) when they talk about the "let em go, let em grow" concept?  |
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Post by daappleknocker on Feb 16, 2014 13:05:09 GMT -5
And look closely and you will see several rooster pheasants in the crowd.
Yesterday as I took my Mother and her caregiver out for supper we saw approx. 75-100 deer on top and surrounding the sugar beets piled east of Sandusky Michigan. It was an awesome sight. The piles must be fourty feet high and 300 yards long, there they were up on top eating sugar beets. Now thats what I call supplemental feeding. I wish I would have had my camera.
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Post by yesdeer on Feb 17, 2014 12:47:22 GMT -5
Meanwhile, in norther Michigan:  |
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 18, 2014 10:28:08 GMT -5
Here is the latest forecast for the UP
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
603 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-182345-
KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-
GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON...
HANCOCK...L`ANSE...GWINN...MARQUETTE...GRAND MARAIS...MUNISING...
NEWBERRY...IRONWOOD...IRON RIVER...IRON MOUNTAIN...MENOMINEE...
ESCANABA...GLADSTONE...MANISTIQUE...KENTON...SIDNAW...SENEY
603 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 /503 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014/
...STRONG WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS WEEK...
THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM MAY TAKE AIM ON THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND COULD CHANGE. AS IT STANDS NOW...HEAVY SNOW ALONG
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD OCCUR OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. WARM AIR MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL SWITCH SNOW OVER TO A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH ICING POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...VERY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
Might just break the WSI record this year if this keeps up......................................
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 22, 2014 18:20:23 GMT -5
Was able to at least take a drive around a some of the deer yard areas today. With the foot of snow we got yesterday/last night and the strong winds some roads were impassable and possibly obscured some deer trails (if they were even there in the first place).
First impression was there were not any deer in spots where they have wintered every other winter in the past! Would have to get on the snow shoes to get back in further to see if they might still be there and are just trapped in a tiny area within their normal wintering area, or if they have already perished from the severe winter weather this year 
Second impression was from the areas we did find deer was they are already becoming listless and unconcerned of what is going on around them. There were spots where they had tried to get off the trails and even though we did not see it happen it was clear from the tracks it had to have look very close to the deer pic Yesdeer posted in this thread titled "meanwhile, in northern Michigan". The snow is really that deep every where except in the thickest evergreen stands. And is getting real deep even there!
The forecast is for another polar vortex next week with daytime temps maybe not reaching above zero for the UP and just making it above zero here in Emmet county. Along with well below zero nights and wind chills in the -20 plus range |
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Post by hartman756 on Feb 22, 2014 18:33:00 GMT -5
Here is the only usable pic of the deer we did find today. This deer is standing in a large packed down area/trail and you can kinda see how deep the snow is on the deer by looking at the front shoulder area. The hind quarters do not look that deep because of the packed down area . It is taken looking down the trail where the trail turns in the direction the deer is facing.
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Post by ridge on Feb 22, 2014 18:55:36 GMT -5
Thanks for posting. The picture verifies my belief that the deer are having a very difficult time this year.
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Post by yesdeer on Feb 23, 2014 20:23:23 GMT -5
Just to give you an idea of our winter severity index: *4 of our 6 kids are sick of winter and would like it to end, the 2 who like it were never normal anyway, LOL. * 100% of my toes are permanently frozen and pruney from being stuffed into boots while shoveling or snow-blowing (or getting the tractor stuck, which BTW I got unstuck). *2 of our 3 remaining ducks complain loudly as they waddle from the river to the barn for food (the third one rarely talks so her input is sketchy at best). * The cat has become confused as to whether he is a rabbit or a cat since he has to jump/hop in order to get through the snow, kinda feel sorry for him as this has cramped his hunting schedule and he looks incredibly silly! He voices his opinion rather loudly several times a day and it ain't pretty. *Of the remaining 6 chickens, they think that a deep fryer is beginning to look like a hot tub and are giving it some serious thought. * The coon dog has taken to wanting to go for rides in the car, even if it is just to go up to the school to pick up Karissa. Poor dog, she thought she smelled something in one of the snowbanks and once she climbed up on it she sunk in, it took her a few minutes to figure out how to get out without breaking a leg. We have to shovel a piddle area just so she doesn't pee on herself in the deep snow. I am sure I could put all of this into a pretty graph for all of you to ohh and ahh at but I have more snow to shovel... I am afraid, I have a real life and my own thought problems that don't include selling snake oil/pixie dust or putting out a bale of hay a day for deer... If it gets much colder the LimpD's won't even be visible, as they shrink into nothingness... Did I just say that out loud? oops, not! |
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Post by ridge on Feb 23, 2014 23:29:06 GMT -5
Yesdeer, I am going to submit your post for the POST OF THE YEAR! No one could describe things any better than that.
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Post by yesdeer on Feb 24, 2014 7:31:20 GMT -5
Thanks Ridge, I'm still working on those fancy graphs and chart...no matter how I skew the numbers they still come out in the shape of a frown face, go figure.
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Post by daappleknocker on Feb 24, 2014 8:40:53 GMT -5
Yesdeer, I think you should sub-contract that graph thing to Bio, he may not have any pixie dust but his graphs look like pixie stix sometimes.  |
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Post by hartman756 on Mar 8, 2014 18:36:28 GMT -5
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Post by hartman756 on Mar 12, 2014 17:05:06 GMT -5
WSI is updated through March 11.
www.michigan.gov/documents/dnr/Weekly_WSI_Reporting_447522_7.pdf
As in all things , an average over a large region can not give the true depth of how much the deer herd may be devastated in many areas wile at the same time pull through OK in others. A lot of weather variation throughout each specific region so in the coming months there will be those that report a worse case scenario only to be rebuffed by those that claim "no worries " over the winter kill in their area  |
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Post by jailbot on Mar 13, 2014 10:27:59 GMT -5
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Post by jailbot on Mar 13, 2014 10:33:14 GMT -5
Upon reading the comments from the guy that posted the pic . He explained this deer didn't even make it very long after he took the pic. He says it laid down and died shortly after taking the pic
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Post by hartman756 on Mar 14, 2014 20:45:41 GMT -5
Well we made it out in the woods today........well just into the woods. It didn't take long to come across winter kill. Of coarse I dunked the camera in the rives as I was crossing to check it out so was not able to get pics of it or any of the deer we saw. My knee is acting up and the snow was soft today so we didn't go back in very far ( within sight of the road) You could hear the ravens and crows working more winter kills further back in On to the deer we saw........ Sickening is the best way to describe them. And that included all age classes. Even though they were on their feet (was mild today) many have ZERO chance of survival. Sad to see mature does that are just walking skeletons that barely have the energy to put one hoof in front of the other and puffy faced sunken in eyed young of the year. Every tree is browsed back to nothing as far up as a deer can reach and no sign of any attempted breakout from the deer yards with the milder weather. The snow is still belly deep with more below zero temps forecasted. If the snow freezes up hard enough the smaller deer may be able to walk on it and get to fresh browse. One area we checked back a week or so ago that looked like it didn't hold deer for the first time ever we were also able to get in just off the road a short way. We didn't see any of the deer that were indeed there and they also had it browsed way back. The difference there is the many springs with thick greenery ( water cress)that they have hit hard and just about have it all eaten. I would expect those deer are in better shape  Only one deer seen in another spot and she looked in good shape ( area I mentioned before that I suspect several people are feeding them) and the only one that appeared to be still carrying fawns. One deer appeared to be a buck ( pretty certain) and was in an area with some of the worse looking deer and he appeared to be in much better shape than the other deer in the area. |
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Post by ridge on Mar 15, 2014 18:10:41 GMT -5
The carrion feeders are doing the same thing in this area. I love your hunting recommendation on the other site. According to the LimpDs, the NW is THE place to hunt. I really feel for you folks that hunt up there. The DNR experts will see the browse lines and will immediately say that means that more does should be killed. If life were that simple, I would be an expert but . . .
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Post by hartman756 on Mar 15, 2014 21:49:36 GMT -5
I was out some more today and got the camera to partly work...........I am uploading this poor video to You tube right now and will post it as soon as it gets done. I did see a small group of does and YOY that look in OK shape. They were alert ,wary and when they ran off held their tails up 
The other deer I saw were a different story. I only got video of two YOY in that group and one probably wont make it through the next couple of below zero nights and the other one probably has no hope to see spring either. Couldn't tell on the other deer in the group as they were in just a little further ......
NEG 13 forecast tonight and NEG 18 tomorrow night with a possible storm mid week |
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and it is times like these that it is even more important to have the does rather than the bucks alive ,and able to reproduce because reproduction will be so limited........................ 
Only one deer seen in another spot and she looked in good shape ( area I mentioned before that I suspect several people are feeding them) and the only one that appeared to be still carrying fawns. One deer appeared to be a buck ( pretty certain) and was in an area with some of the worse looking deer and he appeared to be in much better shape than the other deer in the area.